With the national polls tightening, the Presidential race may come down to a few states. Imagine that McCain runs the table on the battleground states he is now contesting.
McCain takes Florida, North Carolina and Missouri. He holds onto Indiana. Then Ohio breaks his way and somehow he catches Obama in Pennsylvania.
That leaves Virginia out of the picture, which most observers feel is going to go Obama anyway. McCain has apparently given up on Colorado and New Mexico too.
That leaves Nevada as the last battleground state. Somehow, McCain takes that one. With that, McCain has 273 electoral votes and victory.
But not so fast.
Obama has swung to a narrow lead in North Dakota. This solidly Republican state has been neglected by McCain, but not by Obama. It is increasingly likely that Obama may win it. If he does, the total is 270 for McCain and 268 for Obama. That is still a McCain victory.
Except there is one wildcard left. That is Montana. The latest polls are showing McCain with a narrow 4% lead in Montana. However, McCain has one big problem in Montana. That problem is Ron Paul.
Paul is on the ballot there as the candidate for the Constitution Party. Paul also drew 25% of the votes in the Republican primary against McCain. This is Paul territory. Paul for President signs dote the landscape, sometimes outnumbering the McCain ones. Paul is pulling 4% of the vote without an official campaign. He is even telling his supporters to write-in Chuck Baldwin who is the national Constitution Party candidate.
Add a few more votes for Paul or Obama and McCain loses Montana. With that Obama wins the Presidency with a 271-267 electoral vote majority.
Okay. That is not likely. It is not likely because McCain needs to win almost everything he is contesting. But it could happen. And my guess is Ron Paul would not shed a tear for John McCain.