The U.S. Joint Forces Command has a startling conclusion in its Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008) report. It states that two important nations bear watching for political collapse. The first is Pakistan. No surprise there. The second is Mexico.

“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”

That’s scary stuff. It’s bad enough with Pakistan, a nuclear power. A collapse in Mexico would have dire consequences. It would become the primary foreign policy issue. Immigration would be nothing compared to this outcome.

Imagine Somalia on the southern border.